Afghan Elections 2009

September 2009
Afghan Elections 2009:
Milestone for Progress or Mirror of Malaise?
Robert Matthews
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Summary
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A series of factors indicate that the August 20 Afghan elections might better have been postponed. The egre-­
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for stabilizing the society and improving the lives of the people. It may mark the point of no return for recuperat-­
ing the tarnished credibility of the central government. )RUPDQ\$IJKDQVWKHHOHFWLRQZLOOHQGXSGLVSOD\LQJGH-­
mocracy as a sham and reducing the people’s trust in the Western-­backed political process even more. The election indeed highlighted that Afghan misgovernment is still the Taliban’s most devoted ally and effective recruitment tool.
US president Barack Obama called the Afghan elections on August 20 “the most important test of Afghanistan’s politi-­
cal progress this year.” Then immediately after election day Obama and many international observers congratulated the Afghan people for pulling off the election amidst violent intimidation by Taliban militants. Ten days after the election this seems to be more a triumph of hope over reality.
With some 40 presidential contenders and the Taliban WKUHDWHQLQJWRFXWRIWKH¿QJHUVRIWKRVHZKRVKRZHGXS
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spreading insurgency and the attendant violence. Unfor-­
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the fragile government of Hamid Karzai and convince the SXEOLFVRI1$72QDWLRQVWKDWWKH$IJKDQZDULVZRUWKWKH
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both accounts.
The elections are in fact a sort of microcosm of the cur-­
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affairs in Afghanistan but also recapitulate the shortcomings of the international mission in the past eight years. There is little to be optimistic about Afghanistan today. Whatever DFKLHYHPHQWVKDYHRFFXUUHGKDYHEHHQRYHUVKDGRZHGE\WKH
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tion and called for yet more troops.
A series of factors indicates that instead of advancing the JRDOVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWDQGLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDODOOLHVWKH
elections in fact highlighted the very elements of the crisis a successful election might have ameliorated.
Women’s Participation
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chief accomplishments of this decade: the education and SROLWLFDOSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIJLUOVDQGZRPHQ:RPHQFDP-­
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Education of girls has increased from none in 2000 to 2.6 million today. Women this year represent 40 percent of the 4.5 million citizens added to voting rolls. Ten percent of those registered to compete for provincial council seats ZHUHZRPHQDQGGHVSLWHWKHGDXQWLQJO\ORQJRGGVDQGWKH
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candidates for the presidency. +RZHYHUHYHQWKHVHKRSHIXODGYDQFHVZHUHPDUUHGE\WKH
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many conservative regions of the country played a large role LQLQKLELWLQJWKHWXUQRXWRIZRPHQ,QIDFWQDWLRQDOO\WKHLU
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Talking to the Taliban
The general commitment among the major candidates to RSHQWDONVZLWKWKH7DOLEDQZDVHQFRXUDJLQJ+RZHYHU
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Robert Matthews is a consultant on international relations for The Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre (Noref), Oslo
Sep 2009
Robert Matthews: winning the war does not mean winning the peace
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tiations and reconciliation. No r ef
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and invite the Taliban and other insurgent commanders to PDNHSHDFH+RZHYHUKLVJRYHUQPHQWGLGQRWSULRULWL]H
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efforts. The reconciliation program is virtually a dead letter DQGWKH6DXGLPHGLDWLRQHIIRUWZLWKWKH7DOLEDQKDVJRQH
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spreading numerically and geographically in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
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ciliation efforts and promised to do better at engaging the 7DOLEDQSHDFHIXOO\%RWK$EGXOODKDQG*KDQLDGYRFDWHGD
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fears a loss of credibility in launching an ambitious negotiat-­
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to initiate talks from a “position of strength”.
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1 This sad history was nicely summarized by Fotini Christia and Michale Semple in ”Flipping the Taliban. How to Win in Afghanistan”, Foreign Affairs, July-­August 2009.
2 Eide’s position dovetails with that of Thomas Ruttig, who discussed this option in detail in his recent report with the Afghanistan Analysts Network, “The Other Side. Dimensions of the Afghan Insurgency: Causes, Actors -­ and Approaches to Talks”, AAN, 2009.
3 In “Desafíos post electorales en Afganistán”, El Correo Digi-­
tal, August 29 2009. OHYHOPHPEHUVRIWKH7DOLEDQDUHZDU\RIDFFHSWLQJRIIHUV
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may become a further impediment to any serious project for negotiation and reconciliation.
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culturally acceptable in parts of Afghanistan. Hierarchical traditions may account for voter apathy as many believe that WKHRXWFRPHRIWKHYRWHZLOOEHGHWHUPLQHGRUPDQLSXODWHG
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value.” 4
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that election-­related violence refracted the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and cast doubt on the representa-­
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Pre-election Fraud
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racy did.
After criticising the failure of the government in Kabul (as ZHOODVLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDODOOLHVWRSURYLGHLQWHUQDOVHFXULW\
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citizens is the mushrooming government corruption is at all OHYHOV,QWKDWFRQWH[WWKHQLWLVDOPRVWXQUHPDUNDEOHWKDW
4 Martine van Bijlert, AAN (Afghanistan Analysts Network), Elec-­
tion Blog No. 2: “On the Campaign Trail”, posted: 10-­08-­2009).
Sep 2009
Robert Matthews: Afghan Elections 2009: Milestone for Progress or Mirror of Malaise?
the election provided another snapshot of the Afghanistan malaise. Early fears that fraud could jeopardize the legiti-­
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accusations of irregularities mount daily in the aftermath of voting. During the run-­up to the election reports of corrupting the SURFHVVVXUIDFHGUHJXODUO\LQFOXGLQJVHOOLQJRUVWHDOLQJ
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A Point of no Return?
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cal play by the president for broadening his support in the the people’s trust in the Western-­backed political process QRUWK²WKLVWLPHLQWKH7DMLN±GRPLQDWHGDUHDV,WZDVRIVHF-­ even more. The election indeed highlighted that Afghan ondary importance to the Karzai that there is a considerable misgovernment is still the Taliban’s most devoted ally and ERG\RIHYLGHQFHOLQNLQJWKHSRZHUIXOZDUORUGWRKLJKOHYHO effective recruitment tool. GUXJWUDI¿FNLQJJRLQJEDFNWREHIRUHWKHLQYDVLRQ5 $JJUDYDWHGE\WKHSURVSHFWRISURWHVWVDQGYLROHQFHWKH
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election results are certain to complicate NATOs mission in by Kabul and Washington. The Bush administration’s early $IJKDQLVWDQDQGPDNHLWVSXEOLFUHODWLRQVMREPRUHGLI¿FXOW
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the tragic failures of the international community.
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The presidential elections are thus a reminder of role of replicate a Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan. The 2009 PDOSUDFWLFHLQ.DU]DL¶VGHFOLQLQJOHJLWLPDF\DQGMXVWKRZ
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