DECEMBER TRENDS IN ECONOMY

DECEMBER
TRENDS IN
ECONOMY
2014
EVA’s Real Estate Sector Analyses
MORTGAGE LOAN COSTS FROM CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE
CHANGES IN MORTGAGE LOANS
108.688
20.000
CHANGES IN NON-PERFORMING LOANS
2011
2012
2013
2014
increase/decrease
September
increase/decrease
72.730
80.928
106.137
119.824
13%
October
November
73.855
82.310
106.805
121.242
14%
74.015
84.011
108.688
123.231
13%
Cumulative
Year-on-Year
Change as of
November
27%
14%
29%
13%
720.000
700.000
Years
September
October
November
680.000
2011
2012
2013
2014
708.015
673.031
683.069
619.455
-1,0%
688.179
678.649
690.071
629.525
1,6%
678.562
681.981
676.907
627.427
-0,3%
660.000
increase/decrease
640.000
619.455
629.525
600.000
580.000
The percentage of non-perSeptember
October
November
forming loans in total loans is
calculated as 0.51 % as of
November 2014 This figure was recorded at 0.65% level in October 2013. The total
volume of non-performing loans does not grow in parallel to the total loan volume.
560.000
Eylül
Ekim
2011
2012
2013
Kasım
2014
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (%)*
2013
alı
k
2014
Ar
im
sım
Ka
Ek
s
lül
to
Ey
Ağ
us
uz
mm
Te
Ha
zir
yıs
sa
Ma
Ni
Ma
ak
ba
Oc
Şu
2012
According to December
month data, inflation
(CPI) figures have be
better outlook in
2011
2011
comparison to the
2012
2012
year 2011, however a
2013
2013
2014
worse one when
2014
compared to years
2012 and 2013. The
compound inflation
rate gas increasing by
10% in comparison to the previous year, has reached to 8.17% level as of
December 2014.
12
11
11,14
12
10,61
11,14
10,43
10,45
10,61
10,43
10,45
9,32
9,54
10,43 9,38 9,66
9,48
9,66
9,16 9,07
10,43 9,38
9,15
10
9,19
8,96 9,48
8,88
9,16 9,07
9,19
8,39
8,88
9
8,86
8,87
8,39 8,28
8,17
7,8
7,75 7,89
8,878,88 8,88
8,3
8,28
7,8
8,3 8,17
7,75 7,89
7,71
8 7,31
7,29
8,17 7,88
7,17
7,71
7,32
7,4
7,31
7,29
7,88
7,17
7,32
7,66
7,4
7,66
7
7,03
6,16
7,03
6,51
6,37
6,16
6,65
6,51
6,37
6,65
6,136,13
6
6,24 6,31 6,31
6,15
6,24
6,15
11
al
ık
Kasım
Aralık
Ar
im
sım
Ekim
Ka
Ek
l
Ey
lü
os
us
t
Ağ
m
uz
Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül
m
Nisan
Te
Mart
n
Şubat
Ni
sa
t
Ocak
4,264,26
an
4,164,16 3,993,99
zir
3
Ha
4
3
yı
s
5
4,9 4,9
4
ak
5
Ma
7
6
rt
9
8
Ma
10
Oc
*Source: Turkish Statistical Institute and Republic of Turkey Central Bank.
BIST Real Estate Investment
Companies Index reflecting the
performance of all real estate
investment companies listed in
Istanbul
Stock
Exchange
increased by 9.1% monthly
-on-month, which has gained
29% year-on-year as of January.
CURRENCY (EURO/DOLLAR)
3,30
3,10
2,90
2,70
2,50
2,30
DOLLAR
DOLAR
2,10
EURO
EURO
1,90
1$=2,31
1¤=2,72
1,70
1,50
KAO
SCIM
AK
//22
0011
34
BIK
A1T/ 4
/220
1
Feb O 0134
/2MC0AAK
R1T/4
/2201
Marc ŞUB 0144
h/N2İSAT/
0AN1/240
2 14
Apri MA 014
l /M2A RT/
0YIS12401
/2 4
N
01
May/
HA İSA
20N/1 4
ZİR
A 204
Jun MA N/2014
eT / YIS 14
EM20/
2
M 1
1
H U 04
July AZİR Z/20 4
A/Ğ20AN 14
US 1/4
20
Aug TEM TOS/2 14
ust MUZ 01
/20/2 4
EY 104
SeApĞUS LÜL/ 14
/2TO0 201
S/14 4
2
EK 014
Oct EYLÜİM/2
/20L/ 01
12401 4
KA
4
Nov/EKSIM/
İM
20/12201
041 4
AR
4
Dec/KAASLIMIK/
20/12201
041 4
4
ARO
C
Jan ALAIKK
/20 //220
150115
4
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
COMPANIES PRICE INDEX
Jan A
/ŞR2UA0L
The largest amount of loan used among loan types is
consumer loans according to the data published by
Banks’ Association of Turkey in September 2014.
Consumer loans have a share of 54% in private banking
loans whereas mortgage loans constitute a 25% share.
The share of non-performing mortgage loans in total
mortgage loans is only 5.5%. Vehicle loans have the
least share of non-performing loans by 2.6%. In fact,
such shares indicate that both mortgage and vehicle
loans are less risky types of loans.
With regard to loan use by income level groups – the
highest amount of loans are used by the highest income
level individuals (TRY 5,001.- and higher) followed by
income group D individuals (TRY 1,001- 2,000.-)
Consumer loan as the most used type of loan does also
have impact on the distribution of loan terms. According
to data as of September, the most frequently preferred
loan term is the 25-36 month range.
Private banking loans are mostly preferred by high
school graduates. They are followed by college graduates and then by primary and secondary school graduates.
2011
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI, COMPOUND %)
Şu
ba
October 14
April 14
Temmuz 14
January 14
October 13
July 13
April 13
October 12
January 13
July 12
April 12
January 12
July 11
October 11
CONSUMER LOANS AND MORTGAGE LOANS
an
*Source: Turkish Statistical Institute and Republic of Turkey Central Bank.
n
* Source: Central Bank of Turkey Housing Price Index TKF (2010=100)
t
96,4
Consumer Confidence 98
94,8
93,6 93,4 93,5
93,7
91,3
93
Index* has fallen as
92
91
92,9
91,7
89,7
of November 2014 by 88
1.5%month-on-month. 83
79 79,6 79,3
78,1
According to statis78,5
77,5
76,8
78,5
77,2
78
75,7
75
tics, the index has
72,1 75,5
77
76
76,7
74,3
76,2
75,6 77,5
74
75,8
72,6
74,9
73
72,7
73,6
72,4
started at the lowest
73,9 73,2
73,7
70,3
72,1
68,7 67,7
69,2
69,03
level in last four 68
years, which is
expected to rise
slightly or remain constan t in January 2015.
1500
165
160
rt
(TL=m )
(TRY=m
Indeks
Housing prices Endeks
THPI
TKFE(2010=100)
(2010=100)
are increasing
Unit
Price
Axis)
Birim
Fiyat(Right
(Sağ Eksen)
faster than the
inflation rate
according to
Central Bank’s
October data.
The housing index
has increased
in October by
1.24 % month-on-month and by 15.94 % year-on-year.
The housing index values have increased by 24.78%,
12.14% and 13.00% year-on-year in Istanbul, Ankara and
İzmir respectively.
22
April 11
627.427
620.000
CENTRAL BANK HOUSING PRICE INDEX*
January 11
681.981
The cumulative change in
mortgage loans was calculated as 13% year-on-year
as of November. In mortgage loans – only a growth
of 13% was recorded this
year which have grown by 29% in the same period of the
previous year. We predict that the loan volumes will slow
down in the first months of the year 2015, indeed will recover in the following months.
Changes in
Non-Performing
Loans(TRY)
Takipteki
Konut
Kredisi Değişimi
(000 TL)
676.907
November
Kasım
2014
Konut Kredisi
Değişimi (mioLOANS
TL)
CHANGES
IN MORTGAGE
Years
1.333
2.135
678.562
2013
690.071
2012
688.179
October
Ekim
2011
10 Yearly
5 Yearly
678.649
September
Eylül
683.069
0
100.000 TRY
100.000 TRY
*Approximate loan cost excluding fixed bank fee costs.
*This may vary from bank to bank.
*It was calculated using a discount rate of 0.89 %.
708.015
106.805
74.015
40.000
82.310
60.000
73.855
72.730
80.928
80.000
123.231
121.242
106.137
100.000
Loan costs with 10 years term are varying within the range between
0.85 and 1.24% on monthly basis as of November. Mortgage loan costs
may vary bank by bank, indeed for a loan in the amount of TRY 100,000,
a monthly installment of about TRY 1,333 is calculated in 10 year term
Amount Dept
Duration
Payment Tl/mounth*
and TRY 2,135 in 5 year term.
673.031
119.824
120.000
84.011
140.000
I S S U E - 13