the document

NOVEMBER
TRENDS IN
ECONOMY
EVA’s Real Estate Sector Analyses
2014
MORTGAGE LOAN COSTS FROM CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE
CHANGES IN MORTGAGE LOANS
Loan costs with 10 years term are varying within the range of 0.87-1.25%
on monthly basis as of October. Mortgage loan costs may vary bank by bank,
indeed for a loan in the amount of TRY 100,000, a monthly installment of
about TRY 1,345 is calculated in 10 year term and TRY 2,146 in 5 year term.
140.000
106.805
*Approximate loan cost excluding fixed bank fee costs.
*This may vary from bank to bank.
*It was calculated using a discount rate of 0.87 %.
20.000
October
Ekim
640.000
620.000
560.000
362.725
790
318
Russian Federation
227.469
In the recent year, the number of foreign investors
2
investing in Turkey has risen steeply
by 66%, whereas
property purchases have soared by 78% in terms of unit
area per sqm. Investors from Gulf countries have
contributed largely to this increase.
The share of investors from Gulf countries within total
number of investors has reached to 38% in the year 2013
by an increase of nearly 13%.
690.071
k
alı
Ar
im
sım
Ek
Ka
Ağ
us
Ey
to
s
lül
uz
an
mm
Te
Ha
zir
n
yıs
sa
Ma
t
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
COMPANIES PRICE INDEX
BIST Real Estate Investment
Companies Index reflecting the
performance of all real estate
investment companies listed in
Istanbul Stock Exchange increased
by 10.4% monthly, which has lost
by 0.2% year-on-year as of December.
al
ık
Kasım
Ar
sım
m
Ek
i
Ekim
Ka
Ey
lü
l
Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül
uz
Nisan
to
s
Mart
us
Şubat
Ağ
Ocak
zir
an
3
3
m
m
571.689
10,45
9,48
9,15
8,969,48
9,54
9,16 9,07
9,19
9,16 9,07 8,88
9,19
8,88 8,86
8,87
7,8
8,88
8,88
8,87
8,3
8,17
7,8
8,3
7,71
8,17 7,88
7,4
7,71 7,32
7,887,66
7,32
7,4
7,66
6,16
6,37
6,65
6,16
6,37
6,31
6,65
6,24
6,15
6,24 6,31
6,15
Te
522.942
631.115
Ha
Kuwait
Germany
yıs
910.625
UK
ak
Saudi Arabia
10,45
9,32
Aralık
CURRENCY (EURO/DOLLAR)
3,30
3,10
2,90
2,70
2,50
2,30
DOLLAR
2,10
EURO
1,90
1$=2,27
1¤=2,79
1,70
1,50
KA
SIM
/2
01
3
AR20
AL 13
IK
/2
01
/2OC0 3
AK14
/2
0
Feb ŞU 14
/2B0A
1T/42
01
4
Marc M
h/2ART/
01240
14
Apri NİS
l /2 AN/
012401
4
May/MA
2Y0IS/1
204
JunHAZİR 14
e/ A
20N/12
041
4
JulyTEMM
/20UZ
1/420
Aug AĞUS 14
ust TO
/20S/2
104
Sep EY 14
/2LÜ0
L/14
20
14
Oct EKİM
/20 /
1240
1
Nov/KAS 4
2IM0/12
041
4
AR
Dec/ALIK
20/12
041
4
436.537
4.726
(sqm)
11,14
10,61
11,14
10,43
11 10,61
9,66
10,43 10,43
10
9,38
10,43 9,38 9,66
10
9
8,39
9
8,28
7,75 7,89 8,39
8
7,89
8,28
7,75
7,31
7,29
8
7,17
7,31
7,29
7,17
7
7,03
7
7,03
6,51
6
6,51
6,13
6
6,13
5
5
4,9
4,9
4,26
4
4,26
4,16
4
3,99
4,16
3,99
12
11
Dec/
Sakarya
6.610
Top 10 Countries of Investors
(2014)
ak
12
According to November month data, inflation (CPI) figures
have
be
better
2011
2011
2012
2012
outlook in compari2013
2013
2014
son to the year 2011
2014
however a worse one
when compared to
years 2012 and 2013.
The compound inflation rate gas increasing by 25% in comparison to the
previous year, has reached to 9.15% level as of November 2014.
Jan
Yalova
645.338
3.238
2014
96,4
Consumer Confidence 98
94,8
93,6 93,4 93,5
93,7
91,3
93
Index* has fallen as
92
91
92,9
91,7
89,7
of
November 88
2011
2014
by
2.3% 83
2012
79 79,6 79,3
78,1
78,5
mo n th -o n -mo n th .
77,5
76,8
78,5
2013
77,2
78
75,7
75,5
75
76 76,2 77 74,3 72,1
According to statis2014
74
75,8 76,7 74,9 75,6 77,5
72,6
73
72,7
73,6
72,4
73,9 73,2
73,7
70,3
tics, the index has
72,1
68,7
69,2
69,03
started at the lowest 68
level in last four
years, which is expected to fall further slightly or remain constant in
December 2014.
Oc
Istanbul
685.413
Ekim
2013
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI, COMPOUND %)
Foreign investors preferring Turkey in the year 2014 are
mostly observed from Saudi Arabia, UK and Germany,
who have preferred the provinces of Muğla, Antalya and
Istanbul by most in following order.
1.046.233
Eylül
2012
*Source: Turkish Statistical Institute and Republic of Turkey Central Bank.
FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN FIRST 10 MONTHS
Antalya
A ustos
2011
ba
Temmuz
July
September
Eylül 14
March
Mart
May
Mayıs
* Source: Central Bank of Turkey Housing Price Index TKF (2010=100)
Mugla
688.179
580.000
The percentage of non-performing
August
September
October
mortgage loans in mortgage
loans is calculated as 0.52 % as
of October 2014. This figure was recorded at 0.65% level in September 2013.
The total volume of non-performing loans does not grow in parallel to the total loan volume.
Oc
1500
165
160
Number
of people
629.525
600.000
Şu
(TL=m )
Indeks
Housing prices Endeks
THPI
TKFE(2010=100)
(2010=100)
are increasing
Unit
Price
(Right
Axis)
Birim
Fiyat
(Sağ Eksen)
faster than the
inflation rate
according to
Central Bank’s
September
data. The housing index has
increased
in
September by 0.79 % month-on-month and by 15.32 %
year-on-year. The housing index values have increased
by 24.24 percent, 11.68 percent and 13.01 percent
year-on-year in Istanbul, Ankara and İzmir respectively.
(sqm)
619.455
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (%)*
22
Provinces Preferred (2014)
625.895
678.649
660.000
683.069
680.000
708.015
688.179
678.649
690.071
629.525
1,6%
673.031
708.015
673.031
683.069
619.455
-1,0%
686.693
711.480
657.252
686.693
625.895
1,2%
CENTRAL BANK HOUSING PRICE INDEX*
Province
1.345
2.146
711.480
2011
2012
2013
2014
Artış/Azalış
increase/decrease
Ma
73.855
82.310
106.805
121.242
14%
October
Ni
72.730
80.928
106.137
119.824
13%
September
n
72.201
79.665
104.446
117.489
12%
August
t
2011
2012
2013
2014
Artış/Azalış
increase/decrease
700.000
Years
ba
October
Cumulative
Year-on-Year
Change as of
October
30%
11%
30%
14%
Şu
September
Payment Tl/mounth*
657.252
The cumulative change in
mortgage loans was calculated as 14% year-on-year
as of October. In mortgage
loans – only a growth of
14% was recorded this year which have grown by 30% in the
same period of the previous year. We presume that the loan
volumes will liven up a little in coming months, indeed to low down later.
Konut Kredisi
Değişimi (mio
TL)
CHANGES
IN MORTGAGE
LOANS
August
Duration
10 Yearly
5 Yearly
720.000
ChangesKonut
in Non-Performing
Takipteki
Kredisi DeğişimiLoans(TL)
(000 TL)
Years
Amount Dept
100.000 TL
100.000 TL
CHANGES IN NON-PERFORMING LOANS
2014
rt
2013
sa
2012
Ni
September
Eylül
2011
rt
August
A ustos
Ma
0
Ma
82.310
73.855
106.137
80.928
72.730
40.000
72.201
60.000
79.665
80.000
104.446
100.000
121.242
119.824
117.489
120.000
I S S U E - 12