Doğuş Otomotiv
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Doğuş Otomotiv
Doğuş Otomotiv February, 2009 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 2 BANKING BANKING&& FINANCIAL FINANCIAL SERVICES SERVICES • Banking • Insurance • Pension Fund • Leasing • Factoring • Securities • Asset Management • Payment Systems • Technology AUTOMOTIVE AUTOMOTIVE • Import and Distribution (TR&Abroad) • Production (Krone, Meiller) • Retail and After Sales Services • 2nd Hand Cars CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION MEDIA MEDIA TOURISM & LEISURE • Tourism Investments • Infrastructure • Building • TV • Engineering and Consultancy • Radio • Marina Management • Magazines • Luxury Goods • Ground and Drilling • Internet • Books • Mobile Applications REAL ESTATE ENERGY • REIT • Production • Project Development • Distribution • RE Portfolio Management • Import/ Export Retail - fashion & accessories • Travel Agency • Logistics • Consumer Finance • Fleet Rental • Insurance 3 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 4 Presence in Every Stage of Automotive Value Chain DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures, services, repairs and inspects 5 Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors (*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-2008 6 Success Story of DOAS Bugatti representative Partnership with LeasePlan in fleet rental Porsche Dealership in Lausanne Car park more than 650K units Krone & Meiller Production Agreements TÜV TURK IPO OTO-FIX Doğuş Group established subsidiaries for distributing VW, Audi & Porsche Seat & Skoda contract signed (Partnership with Yūce Oto) Lamborghini LOI Krone contract signed Bentley LOI JV in consumer financing with VW Financial Services AG Scania contract signed Meiller Distribution Thermoking Distribution VW Marine Engines Used car operations established Merger of automotive companies under DOAS M/S:Market Share M/S: 12.0% M/S: 0.5% M/S: 10.6% M/S: 5.8% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW7 brands’ market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in 2005 Key Strengths of DOAS Leader in import market in Turkey with 18% m/s among c. 30 pure importers One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing, insurance Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands Well-equipped IT infrastructure Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share 9 DOAS’ Position in the Market - 2008 LCV PV Passat is the segment leader VW LCVs are the market leader in imports, #3 in total market Golf is #2 in its segment VW PVs ranked 7th in the market HCV Scania is the market leader in import with 9.4% m/s Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s Luxury Segment 12 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2008 Audi is the leader of its segment Porsche Cayenne is segment leader of gasoline SUV segment Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport segment 10 Recent Launches Volkswagen PV Volkswagen LCV Audi Porsche Seat Bentley Lamborghini Scania Krone Tiguan, Passat Coupe, Scirocco, New Golf Caddy Maxi, Caddy Life, Transporter Sportsline, Caravelle Limited Edition A4, A4 Avant, A3 Cabrio, A3 (face lift), RS6 Cayenne GTS, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Cayman(facelift) Altea Freetrack, New Ibiza, Leon (face lift) Continental Flying Spur, Continental GT/GTC, Arnage T Gallardo G series Cooliner Duoplex 11 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 12 Current Macroeconomic Outlook Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts) Strong net exports and decent demand conditions Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years) Relations with IMF to continue Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 9.50% as of end-Jan’08) Reforms on EU convergence C/A deficit at concerning level (currently financable via FDI and portfolio investments) Net FDI inflow declines Global credit crunch Shrinkage in major economies Increasing risk aversion 13 Annual CPI Source: TURKSTAT Source: CBT, ISE Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Annual PPI Benchmark Int. Rates (compound, %) USD/TRY EUR/TRY 20.0% 14.6% 10.0% 13.9% 8 -08 n-0 9 v-0 8 Ja No Se p l- 0 y-0 8 8 8 r-0 Ju Ma Ma n-0 v-0 7 Ja No 7 -07 r-0 Se p Ma 6 -06 r-0 Se p Ma 5 YoY Inflation (%) -05 r-0 Se p Ma 4 -04 r-0 0% Se p 7.90% Ma 5% 3 10% -03 9.50% r-0 15% Se p 20% Ma M ay -0 Se 3 p0 Ja 3 n0 M 4 ay -0 Se 4 p04 Ja n0 M 5 ay -0 Se 5 p05 Ja n0 M 6 ay -0 Se 6 p06 Ja n0 M 7 ay -0 Se 7 p07 Ja n0 M 8 ay -0 Se 8 p0 Ja 8 n09 Macroeconomic Indicators Nominal Exchange Rates 35% 30% 2.10 2.11 25% 1.90 1.88 1.70 1.50 1.64 1.30 1.10 Source: CBT, Garanti Bank Basket(0,5USD+0,5EUR) Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%) 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 0.0% O/N Int. Rates (compound,%) 14 Macroeconomic Indicators Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn) FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn) 2003 230 Exports 2004 2005 2006 2007 Imports 200 202 170 25 20 140 132 110 15 10 80 5 20 0 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 50 Source: TURKSTAT Slovak Rep. Czech Republic Poland Turkey Mexico Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report Auto Loan Rates (%) 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Hungary TRY EURO Consumer Confidence Index 100.0 USD 96.2 90.0 2.13 93.9 92.1 92.5 87.6 1.09 0.99 79.9 82.0 80.0 76.2 75.4 70.0 75.0 80.7 74.2 77.0 69.9 -0 8 D ec 8 ct -0 O -0 8 Au g n08 Ju 08 Ap r- 08 -0 7 Fe b- O D ec 7 60.0 ct -0 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 68.9 Source: VDF Source: TURKSTAT 15 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 16 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Huge upside potential in the domestic market... Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria Vehicle Ownership per 1000 inhabitants (PV+LCV) 818 USA 685 Italy 604 Germany UK 576 France 575 529 EU Average 510 Greece 391 Poland 361 Bulgaria 138 Turkey 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Source: OSD (2007) 17 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Turkish Automotive Market (units) 900,000 725,672 800,000 652,877 700,000 600,000 635,087 503,492 456,272 500,000 2000&2001 Economic crisis 400,000 300,000 Effects of global crisis 767,443 388,602 323,309 393,888 Russia crisis 200,000 100,000 179,822 618,770 Turbulence in global markets July 2007 elections 516,395 300-350,000 172,042 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 17% YoY decrease in total market (PV, LCV, HCV) in 2008 18 2008 Market Review 2007 -17% 2008 619K 600,000 -15% 516K 500,000 400,000 -19% 359K 307K 300,000 233K 189K 200,000 100,000 -23% 26K 20K 0 PV LCV HCV TOTAL 2007 Others 22% 2008 Ford 17% Others 27% Renault 14% Renault 15% Toyota 5% Toyota 5% Peugeot 4% Opel 6% Hyundai 6% Ford 15% Fiat 13% DOAS 11% Peugeot 4% Opel 6% Hyundai 7% DOAS 11% Fiat 12% 19 DOAS Sales Performance WHOLESALES (unit) Jan'09 Jan'08 YoY 2008 2007 YoY VW VW PV VW LCV AUDI PORSCHE BENTLEY LAMBORGHINI SEAT SKODA SCANIA KRONE MEILLER 1,012 747 265 156 8 0 0 105 100 86 13 2 3,387 1,663 1,724 259 2 3 0 352 278 178 25 10 -70% -55% -85% -40% 300% -100% -70% -64% -52% -48% -80% 40,454 21,485 18,969 5,647 157 12 9 2,874 3,558 1,894 518 184 53,779 26,110 27,669 5,898 218 19 3 3,426 5,291 2,174 811 70 -25% -18% -31% -4% -28% -37% 200% -16% -33% -13% -36% 163% TOTAL 1,482 4,494 -67% 55,307 71,689 -23% PV LCV HCV 12,215 5,440 521 17,980 12,237 1,355 -32% -56% -62% 307,214 188,954 20,227 359,416 232,971 26,383 -15% -19% -23% TOTAL 18,176 31,572 -42% 516,395 618,770 -17% PV LCV HCV 9.1% 4.9% 16.5% 14.2% 14.1% 13.1% 11.0% 10.0% 9.4% 11.4% 11.9% 8.2% TOTAL 8.1% 14.1% 10.6% 11.4% Market Size DOAS Market Share Source: ADA, DOAS 20 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 21 DOAS Headline Figures - I Vehicle Sales Volume 9M08 9M07 YoY ch. Unit sales 44,859 45,134 -1% 2nd hand sales 11,019 9,223 19% P&L (US$ mn) 9M08 9M07 YoY ch. Revenues 1,422 1,287 10% 189 191 -1% 13.3% 14.8% - 27 55 -51% 1.9% 4.3% - 40 65 -39% 2.8% 5.0% - (26) 42 -162% (1.8%) 3.3% - Gross Profit Gross Margin Operating Profit Operating Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Profit Net Margin 22 DOAS Headline Figures - II BS (US$ mn) 30-Sep-2008 31-Dec-2007 ch. Total Assets 967 993 -3% Shareholders' Equity 348 466 -25% Capital Expenditures 22 88 -75% Net Cash (Debt) (95) (112) -15% Net Working Capital (34) 9 -478% Receivable Turnover 22 21 5% Inventory Turnover 73 51 43% Payable Turnover 85 55 55% Turnovers (days) 23 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 24 Trailer Production with Krone • Krone is leader of the import market with 45% market share (12% in total, ranking 4th) • Expansion of authorized dealership and service network in 2007 • Initial capacity will be 5,000 and increased to 10,000 after 1st year • 90% of production will be diverted to exports. • Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share 25 Tipper Production with Meiller • Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of of the Meiller brand in Turkey in February 2007. • As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller formed a joint venture (JV) company • The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey. • In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Meiller. • The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production capacity. • Almost 80% of the production will be exported. • Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant. 26 Porsche Sales in Lausanne • Marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche in Lausanne, Switzerland • In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in 2008 vs 157 in Turkey • Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland’s largest Porsche outlet • Operations will start in 1H09 • Estimated investment is US$18 mn 27 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 28 Expectations 2009E 2008 2007 300-350,000 516,395 618,770 DOAS Market share 12.0% 10.6% 11.4% DOD 2nd hand car sales 12,000 13,121 13,024 2009E 2008E 2007 1,150 1,600 1,979 Gross Margin 12.0-13.0% 12.0-13.0% 13.8% Operating Profit Margin 2.75-3.25% 1.0-1.5% 3.4% 2009E 2008 2007 1.50 1.29 1.29 January-December Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV) Revenues (US$mn) Average $/TRY Rate 29 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 30 VDF is a hidden value... 2007 New contracts: Credits Given: Portfolio: Market Share: 38,776 units TRY 968 mn 98,432 units 14% among all financial institutions 2008 New contracts: Credits Given: Portfolio: Market Share: 25,198 units (24% yoy decrease) TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease) 81,141 units (18% yoy decrease) 11% among all financial institutions Consumer Finance 31 Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS) TUVTURK – a cash cow business of DOAS, Akfen Holding and TÜV SÜD Right to build & operate MVIS in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn. 189 fixed and 38 mobile inspection stations will be built until end-1Q09 with an investment of US$200mn. The operations in every region, except Istanbul, will be carried out by the business associates (BA) for 20 years. The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years: 40% and 11-20th years: 50% ...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20% They will also pay one-time license fees to the consortium totalling US$750mn. The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn EBITDA. 32 DOD: Used Car Sales Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized. The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars. DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business. The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer confidence. DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,121 vehicles in 2008. Expected sales volume for 2009 is 12,000 i.e. a 9% YoY decrease over 2008. DOD Sales Performance 20.000 1% -9% 16.000 68% 12.000 13.024 13.121 2007 2008 12.000 59% 7.760 8.000 4.881 4.000 0 2005 2006 2009E 33 DOAS Headline Figures - 2007 Vehicle Sales Volume 2006 2007 YoY ch. Unit sales 76,902 70,808 -8% 2nd hand sales 7,760 13,024 68% P&L (US$ mn) 2006 2007 YoY ch. Revenues 1,766 1,979 12% 203 273 35% 11.5% 13.8% 41 68 2.3% 3.4% 49 82 2.8% 4.1% 15 50 0.9% 2.5% Dividends 5 17 Yield 1.7% 5.5% Gross Profit Gross Margin Operating Profit Operating Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Profit Net Margin 67% 67% 225% 240% 34 DOAS Headline Figures - 2007 BS (US$ mn) 2006 2007 YoY ch. Total Assets 804 993 24% Shareholders' Equity 340 464 36% Capital Expenditures 16 88 444% Net Cash (Debt) 41 (43) - Net Working Capital 99 63 -36% Receivable Turnover 21 21 0% Inventory Turnover 69 51 -26% Payable Turnover 79 55 -31% Turnovers (days) 35 Stock Performance 12.00 1.20 10.00 1.00 1.94 52 wk High (TRY) (28Feb08) 6.83 52 wk Low (TRY) (20Nov08) 1.40 % Price Change 1 Month Ago 9.6% % Price Change 3 Months Ago -10.2% % Price Change 6 Months Ago -52.7% % Price Change 1 Year Ago -66.7% 8.00 0.80 6.00 0.60 0.40 4.00 0.20 2.00 XU-100 Relative doas (YTL) 0.00 06/04 Closing Price (TRY) (3OJan09) Mcap (TRYmn) (30Jan09) 213 Mcap (US$mn) (30Jan09) 131 0.00 03/05 12/05 09/06 06/07 03/08 SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE 12/08 % Share Amount (TRY) DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş. 35.21% 38,730,609 DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş. 30.29% 33,319,043 0.00% 348 34.50% 37,950,000 100.00% 110,000,000 OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES PUBLICLY TRADED TOTAL 36 Thank You.. Contact Doğuş Otomotiv Investor Relations Department Tel: +90 262 676 90 58 Fax: +90 262 676 90 96 Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi, Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, 41435 Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY E-mail: [email protected] 38 Disclaimer Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this document are strictly confidential. 39
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Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing inform...