Agenda - Doğuş Otomotiv
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Doğuş Otomotiv January, 2010 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 2 Group Structure Financial Services Automotive Construction Media Tourism & Leisure Real Estate Energy Corporate Social Responsibility 3 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 4 Presence in Every Link of Automotive Value Chain DOAS produces, finances, sells, rents, insures, services, repairs and inspects 5 Widest Retail & Services Network in Turkey Approx. 500 customer points, widest among the competitors (*) DOAS brands, including VW, Audi, Porsche, Scania, Seat, Krone, VW Marine, Scania Marine, Skoda as of end-December 2009 6 Success Story of DOAS Bugatti representative Partnership with LeasePlan in fleet rental Porsche Dealership in Lausanne Car park more than 700K units Krone & Meiller Production Agreements TÜV TURK IPO OTO-FIX Doğuş Group established subsidiaries for distributing VW, Audi & Porsche Seat & Skoda contract signed (Partnership with Yūce Oto) Lamborghini LOI Krone contract signed Bentley LOI JV in consumer financing with VW Financial Services AG Scania contract signed Meiller Distribution Thermoking Distribution VW Marine Engines Used car operations established Merger of automotive companies under DOAS M/S:Market Share M/S: 12.0% M/S: 0.5% M/S: 10.6% M/S: 5.8% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 After Dogus Otomotiv became the sole importer and distributor of VW brand vehicles in Turkey, VW7 brands’ market share increased from 0.5% in 1993 to 12% in 2005 Key Strengths of DOAS Leader in import market in Turkey with 16% m/s among c. 30 pure importers One-stop shopping concept showroom, after sales services, consumer financing, insurance Well-positioned multi-brand products 15 different brands Creating its own brands DOD, Oto-fix Youngest fleet in the market with new launches every year, has more than 75 models Widespread network and customer base, widest network with c.500 customer points Customer focus, close relations with customers result in loyalty to the brands Well-equipped IT infrastructure Advanced financial risk management systems daily monitoring of the FX position Profit oriented growth strategy profitability always kept without losing market share 8 DOAS’ Position in the Market - 2009 LCV PV Volkswagen ranked 2nd in PC Market Passat retains its 1st position in its Segment. VW LCV ranked 5th in the commercial vehicles market, as 3rd among import brands Transporter is the best selling combi vehicle in its segment VW PVs ranked 5th in the market Luxury Segment HCV Scania ranked the best selling brand for the seventh time in the 16 tons and above import heavy commercial vehicle market Krone is the best selling import trailer with 12.0% m/s 8 Bentleys, 9 Lamborghinis sold in 2009 Audi is SUV premium segment leader. Audi sold 6.260 units in 2009 (Highest sales ever). Porsche is the best selling brand of luxury sport segment 9 Recent Launches Volkswagen PV Volkswagen LCV Audi Porsche Seat Bentley Lamborghini Scania Krone Touran, Scirocco, New Polo,Touareg New Transporter Caravelle (facelift) Q7 PI, A5 Cabrio, A4 Allroad Panamera,Cayenne Diesel, 911 GT2, Carrera(facelift), Boxster(facelift), Leon(facelift),Altea XL,Exeo, Ibiza SC Continental Flying Spur Speed,Continental GT Speed,Continental GTC Speed, Continental Supersports Gallardo LP 560-4, Murcielago LP 640,Murciélago LP 670-4 SuperVeloce G series,EGR Cooliner Duoplex 10 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 11 Current Macroeconomic Outlook Structural improvements in Turkish economy (social security reform, tax reform, banking sector restructuring, independent central bank, increased transparency in fiscal accounts) Tight fiscal policy (though relatively looser compared to past years) Relations with IMF to continue Ongoing disinflation efforts (Annual CPI at 6.53 % as of end – Dec ‘09) Reforms on EU convergence Net FDI inflow declines (During January-Sep 2009, FDI inflows decreased by 57% to US$ 5.1 billion compared to the same period last year) Global credit crunch Shrinkage in major economies Increasing risk aversion 12 Macroeconomic Indicators YoY Inflation (%) Source: TURKSTAT Nominal Exchange Rates Benchmark & O/N Interest Rates (%) Source: CBT, Garanti Bank Source: CBT, ISE 13 Macroeconomic Indicators Foreign Trade Volume (US$bn) FDI Inflows in OECD Countries (US$bn) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 25 20 15 10 5 0 Slovak Rep. Hungary Czech Republic Poland Turkey Mexico Source: OECD Trends and Recent Developments in FDI Report Source: TURKSTAT Auto Loan Rates (%) Consumer Confidence Index 110,00 TRY EURO USD 100,00 4,25 3,75 90,00 3,25 2,75 2,25 1,75 1,14 70,00 1,25 0,84 0,67 60,00 Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… Mar… Jun-… Sep… Dec… 0,75 0,25 78,38 80,00 Source: VDF Source: TURKSTAT 14 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 15 Turkish Automotive Market Outlook Huge upside potential in the domestic market... Approx. 16mn more vehicles need to be sold in Turkey to reach the level of Bulgaria Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 inhabitants (PV+LCV) 138 Turkey 361 Bulgaria 391 Poland 510 Greece 529 EU Average 575 France 576 UK 604 Germany 685 Italy 818 USA 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Source: OSD (2007) 16 Automotive Market 900 726 800 635 700 503 600 300 200 394 456 389 323 Russia Crisis 100 653 2000 – 2001 Economic Crisis 500 400 767 180 619 Effects of Global Crisis 520 base case 645 600 553 Turbulance in Global Markets 516 450 July 2007 Elections 172 500 540 worst case 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2009 – At a glance 15 Automotive Market 2009 Market Review 14 Market Review 2008 2009 %20 %9 516K 564K %-3 307K 369K %-42 189K 184K 20K 12K PV 2009 LCV HCV TOTAL 2008 18 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 20 DOAS Headline Figures - I Vehicle Sales Volume 9M’09 9M’08 YoY ch. Unit sales 38.120 45.461 (16) % 2nd hand sales 7.673 11.016 (30)% P&L (CMB, US$ mn) 9M’09 9M’08 YoY ch. Revenues 1.061 1.422 (25)% 153 189 (19)% Gross Margin 14.4% 13.3% - Operating Profit 49 27 80% 4.6% 1.9% - 58 40 46% 5.5% 2.8% - 27 (26) 203% 2,5% (1.8%) - Gross Profit Operating Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Profit Net Margin 21 DOAS Headline Figures - II BS (CMB, US$ mn) 31-Sept-2009 31-Dec-2008 Ch. Total Assets 829 955 (13)% Shareholders' Equity 357 232 54 % Capital Expenditures 19 46 (58)% (192) (156) (23)% Receivable Turnover 29 18 61 % Inventory Turnover 53 129 (58)% Payable Turnover 62 146 (57)% Net Cash (Debt) Turnovers (days) 22 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 23 Trailer Production with Krone • In 2003, Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of Krone trailers in Turkey. • Dogus Otomotiv and Krone reached a new agreement in 2007 and formed a JV company to produce trailers in Turkey. • In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Krone. • Estimated capex is US$20 mn for 49% share. • Production plant will become operational in 2011 with an initial capacity of 5,000 units which is planned to be increased to10,000 after the 1st year. • 90% of production will be diverted to exports. • Krone is the leader of the import trailer market in Turkey with 45% market share (12% in total trailer market, ranked 4th). 24 Tipper Production with Meiller • Dogus Otomotiv has become the main exclusive importer and distributor of Meiller brand in Turkey in February 2007. • As per the Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in October 2007, Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller formed a joint venture (JV) company. • The JV is manufacturing Meiller brand tippers and semi-trailer tippers in Turkey. • In the newly established JV company Dogus Otomotiv holds 49% stake, while the remaining 51% is owned by Meiller. • The plant has become operational in 1Q08, with 3,000 units annual production capacity. • Almost 80% of the production is diverted to exports. • Dogus Otomotiv and Meiller have invested a total EUR10mn for the plant. 25 Porsche Sales in Lausanne • In 2007, Dogus Otomotiv was granted by Porsche AG for the marketing, sales and after-sales retail operations of Porsche brand in Lausanne, Switzerland. • In Switzerland; an important market for Porsche, 1,924 units of Porsche cars sold in 2008 vs 157 in Turkey. • Establishment of a new showroom in Lausanne will be one of Switzerland’s largest Porsche outlets. • Operations have started in 2H09. • Estimated investment is US$18 mn. 26 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 27 Expectations AUTO MARKET 2009 2008 2007 Total Market (PV,LCV,HCV) 564 K 516,395 618,770 DOAŞ Market Share 9% 10.6% 11.4% DOD Used Car Sales 10.661 13,122 13,024 FINANCIALS (IFRS) 2009E 2008 2007 Revenues (US$mn) 1,302 1,658 1,979 Gross Margin 14% -15% 13.6% 13.8% Operating Profit Margin 3.5% - 4% 0.9% 3.6% Average US$/TRY Rate 1.54 1.29 1.29 28 Agenda • Doğuş Group • Doğuş Otomotiv • Macroeconomic Outlook • Automotive Market • Doğuş Otomotiv Financial Results • New Projects • Expectations • Appendix 29 VDF is a hidden value... 2009 (End of Nov) New contracts: 17.618 units ( 25% yoy decrease) Credits Given: TRY 540 mn (23% yoy decrease) Portfolio: 63.622 units (24% yoy decrease) Market Share: 11% among all financial institutions Consumer Finance 2008 New contracts: Credits Given: Portfolio: Market Share: 2007 New contracts: Credits Given: Portfolio: Market Share: 25,198 units (24% yoy decrease) TRY 767 mn (21% yoy decrease) 81,141 units (18% yoy decrease) 11% among all financial institutions 38,776 units TRY 968 mn 98,432 units 14% among all financial institutions 30 Motor Vehicle Inspection Stations (MVIS) TUVTURK – a cash cow business of DOAS, Bridgepoint and TÜV SÜD TuvTurk consortium was granted by Turkish Privatization Administration the right to build & operate MVISs in Turkey for 20 years in exchange of US$552mn. 189 fixed and 80 mobile inspection stations are fully operational as of end-1Q09, with an investment of US$200mn. The operations in every region, except Istanbul, are being carried out by the business associates (BA) for 20 years in exchange of one-time license fees totalling US$750mn collected by the TuvTurk consortium. The BAs will share their revenues with the government: 1-3rd years: 30%; 4-10th years: 40% and 11-20th years: 50% ...and with TUVTURK consortium: 1-10th years 7% and 11-20th years: 20% The MVIS business is expected to generate US$15bn revenues in 20 years with US$2.5bn EBITDA. 31 DOD: Used Car Sales Almost 100% of the second-hand vehicles sales market is non-organized. The market is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, due to increase in consumer awareness about organized side and much more favorable tax rates compared to new cars. DOD is the largest organized retailer of the used car business. The only brand that provides guarantee for the second hand cars which increases the consumer confidence. DOD increased its sales volume by 1% YoY to 13,122 vehicles in 2008. Expected sales volume for 2009 is 13,000 i.e. mere 1% YoY decrease over 2008. DOD Sales Performance 20,000 1% -1% 16,000 68% 12,000 13,024 13,122 13,000 2007 2008 2009E 59% 7,760 8,000 4,881 4,000 0 2005 2006 32 DOAS Headline Figures - 2008 Vehicle Sales Volume 2008 2007 YoY ch. Unit sales 55,307 71,690 (23)% 2nd hand sales 13,125 13,024 1% P&L (IFRS, US$ mn) 2008 2007 YoY ch. Revenues 1,658 1,979 (16)% 225 273 (18)% 13.6% 13.8% - 14.9 71.2 (79)% 0.9% 3.6% - 29.7 85.3 (65)% 1.8% 4.3% - (87) 49.4 (276)% (-5.2%) 2.5% - Gross Profit Gross Margin Operating Profit Operating Margin EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Profit Net Margin 33 DOAS Headline Figures - 2008 BS (IFRS, US$ mn) 31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2007 Ch. Total Assets 955 996 (4)% Shareholders' Equity 232 467 (50)% Capital Expenditures 46 88 (48)% (156) (113) (38)% Receivable Turnover 18 21 (14)% Inventory Turnover 129 51 153% Payable Turnover 146 55 165% Net Cash (Debt) Turnovers (days) 34 Stock Performance 1,20 12,00 1,00 10,00 0,80 8,00 0,60 6,00 0,40 4,00 0,20 2,00 IMKB-100 Relative DOAS (TL) 0,00 Closing Price (TRY) (31Dec09) 4,84 52 wk High (TRY) (05 Jan 09) 5,80 52 wk Low (TRY) (09 March 09) 1.65 % Price Change 1 Month Ago 5,40 % % Price Change 3 Months Ago 7,60 % % Price Change 6 Months Ago 94,60 % % Price Change 1 Year Ago 173,9% Ave. Trading Volume (US$mn) 2.3 Mcap (US$mn) (31Dec09) 358 0,00 SHAREHOLDERS STRUCTURE % Share Amount (TRY) DOĞUŞ HOLDİNG A.Ş. 35.21% 38,730,609 DOĞUŞ ARAŞTIRMA GEL. VE MÜŞ. HİZM.A.Ş. 30.29% 33,319,043 0.00% 348 34.50% 37,950,000 100.00% 110,000,000 OTHER DOĞUŞ GROUP COMPANIES PUBLICLY TRADED TOTAL 35 Thank You.. Contact Doğuş Otomotiv Investor Relations Tel: +90 (0) 262 676 90 58 Fax: +90 (0) 262 676 90 96 Address: Doğuş Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.Ş. Atatürk Mahallesi, Anadolu Caddesi, No:22, 41490 Şekerpınar, Çayırova/Kocaeli, TURKEY E-mail: [email protected] 37 Disclaimer Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing information and projections and statements relating to the DOAS (the “Information”). DOAS cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information, and cannot be responsible for the results. The Information is subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed or distributed to any person other than the person to whom the Document and/or Information delivered or sent by DOAS or who required a copy of the same from the DOAS. Any and all information contained in this document are strictly confidential. 38
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Agenda - Doğuş Otomotiv
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presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing inform...
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Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing inform...
Dogus Otomotiv - Is Investment
subject to change without any notice. Neither the Document nor the
Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell
DOAS shares. This Document and/or the Information canno...
Dogus Otomotiv
Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. (the “DOAS”) has prepared this
presentation documents (the “Document”) consisting of documents and
appendixes thereto for the sole purposes of providing inform...